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It’s that reflective time of year when everyone takes what they learned from the past 12 months (and what a stomach-churning 12 months they were!) and tries making educated guesses on what’s in store for the coming year. (Ok, some guesses are more educated than others.)

We thought we’d join in on the forecasting parade and make some predictions for what’s likely ahead for entrepreneurs in 2009 based on recent economic data, conversations with small-business experts and other noteworthy reports. Here they are:

Bankruptcies continue rising. Bankruptcies have already climbed substantially in recent months. But now that the horrible holiday retail season is almost over many businesses are really feeling the pain. Small businesses often don’t have the cash cushions to withstand more than a couple of months of tanking profits, and frankly banks aren’t likely to lend to these businesses either. Many will ultimately make the hard choice of shuttering for good.

Year of the bootstrapper. Access to credit may ease for the most creditworthy entrepreneurs, but it will still be very difficult for many. Venture-capital and angel investors are expected to tighten further, and banks will continue to be leery about whom they lend to. Friends and family, whose retirement accounts and home values have tanked, aren’t likely to come to the rescue.

Foreclosures bite entrepreneurs hard. Many self-employed took out risky mortgages (such as “interest-only” and option adjustable-rate) that will reset at much higher interest rates starting in 2009 and coming years. An analysis by the National Association for the Self-Employed found that about 23% of the self-employed — or about 3.7 million of them — hold these “toxic” mortgages.

Government contracts are hot. President-elect Obama has lots of big expenditures planned to help boost the economy. Small businesses, at least the savvy ones, will be seeking their share. (Also, we expect heated debates over whether the Small Business Administration does enough to ensure small businesses get their promised share of contract dollars.)

Health-care reform moves forward. President-elect Obama promised to make health care a top priority in his administration, pushing a “universal health-care” plan that would mandate that employers over a certain size buy coverage for employees. He’s also proposed a tax credit to help small businesses cover the cost of his plan. Of course, nobody knows how the plan will look when it emerges from Congress – or if it will emerge – but there seems to be enough political will to try.

Focus shifts to online. Many small businesses never worried much about keeping a Web presence, until now. As online shopping continues to grow, and more businesses look for cost-effective ways to market themselves in the down economy, more will build Web sites and experiment with local search and pay-per-performance ads and mobile marketing.

Entrepreneurship takes off. Layoffs at employers big and small are expected to continue into the first couple of quarters — at least. But the millions of newly (and not so newly) unemployed will be scrambling to start their own businesses. Attendance is already way up at many entrepreneurship fairs. But getting external funding to start a new business will be the hard part.

What are your predictions for 2009? Do you agree the economic climate will get even rougher for entrepreneurs?

Last week, my colleague Simona Covel wrote a Page One article detailing the hards times small-business owners are facing in this economic downturn. Along with declining sales, tight credit and disappearing profits, the article offered a painful glimpse at the psychological and personal toll the recession is taking on those who have spent years following a dream they now may lose.

One jewelry-store owner had to file for personal bankruptcy as well as sell his home. The stress and financial strain affected his family life. The experience, the recently divorced entrepreneur says, “ruined my spirit. It crushed me.”

He’s not alone. Eight out of 10 Americans are feeling anxious about the economy, with many getting increasingly angry, irritable and fatigued, according to the American Psychological Association. The trade group’s survey also found that more than half of the 7,000 respondents said they worried about job security and the ability to provide basic needs for their family. Also, 53% reported losing sleep.

Many small-business owners often turn to professional group therapy. Members of the Entrepreneurs’ Organization, a 6,600-member international community of people who own and run companies, offer something called the Forum, in which entrepreneurs can vent about stresses that are not often shared with their spouses, friends or members in their boardroom.

How have you personally dealt with the financial constraints that your company is facing? What has helped?

The Huffington Post wonders if the Small Business Administration actually does what it was created to do: help small businesses start and grow.
Huffington Post.

Senior care, frozen yogurt and pet services top the list of Entrepreneur Magazine’s most promising franchise opportunities for 2009.
Entrepreneur Magazine.

What did you get your favorite small-business owner for Christmas? Maybe it should have been a video camera or Internet-based postage.
U.S. News.

Economists, academics, entrepreneurs and lenders offer their opinions on what the credit markets might look like for small businesses in 2009 - with a few saying it could become even more difficult to get a loan.
Business Week.

What does Karen Gordon Mills’s appointment as SBA chief mean to you? A few consultants and academics give their opinions.
MSNBC.

Sure, retail is down in the dumps. So what? Some people argue this is the perfect time to start an online business - taking advantage of bargain-hunting shoppers who turn to the Web for deals.
Smart Money.

Readers, did you see any other interesting small-business stories this week?

The Huffington Post wonders if the Small Business Administration actually does what it was created to do: help small businesses start and grow.
Huffington Post.

Senior care, frozen yogurt and pet services top the list of Entrepreneur Magazine’s most promising franchise opportunities for 2009.
Entrepreneur Magazine.

What did you get your favorite small-business owner for Christmas? Maybe it should have been a video camera or Internet-based postage.
U.S. News.

Economists, academics, entrepreneurs and lenders offer their opinions on what the credit markets might look like for small businesses in 2009 - with a few saying it could become even more difficult to get a loan.
Business Week.

What does Karen Gordon Mills’s appointment as SBA chief mean to you? A few consultants and academics give their opinions.
MSNBC.

Sure, retail is down in the dumps. So what? Some people argue this is the perfect time to start an online business - taking advantage of bargain-hunting shoppers who turn to the Web for deals.
Smart Money.

Readers, did you see any other interesting small-business stories this week?

It’s increasingly hard in this economic environment for employers to give something a bit extra to their employees. But one company is providing something outside the box: a pre-paid card for workers to pay for health-care expenses, such as a doctor’s visit or a drug prescription.

A few weeks ago, Farmacia Remedios of San Francisco, a chain of nine drugstores catering to the Latino community, began offering a $25 Christmas bonus on these prepaid MasterCards for health-care needs to 85 employees who aren’t on their health-insurance plans. In addition, when those employees use those cards at a specific clinic they are eligible to get a free flu shot and full health assessment, which would normally cost $128.

“It’s a very easy program to use,” says Doug Ryan, chief financial officer of Farmacia Remedios. “For a small company to provide any kind of meaningful health care to employees, you have to look at what the company can afford and can easily administer, because we also have to look at what employees can afford and can contribute.”

The Prepaid Healthcare MasterCard offered by Farmacia Remedios was created by WiredBenefits Inc., which partnered with a local nonprofit Pacific Community Ventures , a San Francisco organization that helps businesses gain affordable access to health care.

San Francisco-based WiredBenefits says the health-care gift card is a tax-free method for employers to provide their employees with health-care dollars. For employees, it can save them the taxes they’d pay if they received a regular cash bonus. Also, any funds lefts in the card at the end of the year roll-over tax free to the next year. Plus, employees can use the card for prescriptions and more than 100,000 over-the-counter medications.

For other ideas on gifts for employees in these hard times, I suggest reading this online column titled “Top 10 Ways to Recognize Employees at Year-End on a Bupkus Budget.”

What are you giving your employees this holiday season?

With Christmas just hours away, the upheaval at eBay continues, reports my colleague Christopher Lawton.

According to the story, weekly traffic to the auction site fell 16% between Nov. 3 and Dec. 14 from a year ago, according to research firm comScore Inc. The site is struggling to keep customers from switching to fixed price sites like Amazon.com. And that’s after eBay cut fees for fixed price listings, trying to encourage growth in that area.

Some sellers are complaining that the changes have made it too difficult for buyers to figure out whether they’re looking at a fixed-price listing or an auction listing. Some sellers also complain that new rules have made it harder to contest low ratings from a buyer.

We’ve heard lots of griping from readers of this blog, who complain that eBay is essentially shunning the small seller in favor of bigger ones, who are more likely to offer fixed-price items. Some small sellers have begun to dip their toes in other online marketplaces, like Etsy.com.

Maybe we shouldn’t blame eBay for trying new things. As the story says, some analysts think the novelty of auction sites has worn off since eBay was launched 10 years ago. Buyers these days would rather pay a fixed price, and eBay is simply adjusting to consumer preference.

Despite the complaining, many small business owners we’ve talked to in the past say alternatives just won’t cut it, and eBay is still the easiest way to sell their wares.

Readers, is that changing? Are you still finding success with eBay, or have you tried out other methods? Do you think auction sites are going out of style?

Photo: AP

It’s increasingly hard in this economic environment for employers to give something a bit extra to their employees. But one company is providing something outside the box: a pre-paid card for workers to pay for health-care expenses, such as a doctor’s visit or a drug prescription.

A few weeks ago, Farmacia Remedios of San Francisco, a chain of nine drugstores catering to the Latino community, began offering a $25 Christmas bonus on these prepaid MasterCards for health-care needs to 85 employees who aren’t on their health-insurance plans. In addition, when those employees use those cards at a specific clinic they are eligible to get a free flu shot and full health assessment, which would normally cost $128.

“It’s a very easy program to use,” says Doug Ryan, chief financial officer of Farmacia Remedios. “For a small company to provide any kind of meaningful health care to employees, you have to look at what the company can afford and can easily administer, because we also have to look at what employees can afford and can contribute.”

The Prepaid Healthcare MasterCard offered by Farmacia Remedios was created by WiredBenefits Inc., which partnered with a local nonprofit Pacific Community Ventures , a San Francisco organization that helps businesses gain affordable access to health care.

San Francisco-based WiredBenefits says the health-care gift card is a tax-free method for employers to provide their employees with health-care dollars. For employees, it can save them the taxes they’d pay if they received a regular cash bonus. Also, any funds lefts in the card at the end of the year roll-over tax free to the next year. Plus, employees can use the card for prescriptions and more than 100,000 over-the-counter medications.

For other ideas on gifts for employees in these hard times, I suggest reading this online column titled “Top 10 Ways to Recognize Employees at Year-End on a Bupkus Budget.”

What are you giving your employees this holiday season?

With Christmas just hours away, the upheaval at eBay continues, reports my colleague Christopher Lawton.

According to the story, weekly traffic to the auction site fell 16% between Nov. 3 and Dec. 14 from a year ago, according to research firm comScore Inc. The site is struggling to keep customers from switching to fixed price sites like Amazon.com. And that’s after eBay cut fees for fixed price listings, trying to encourage growth in that area.

Some sellers are complaining that the changes have made it too difficult for buyers to figure out whether they’re looking at a fixed-price listing or an auction listing. Some sellers also complain that new rules have made it harder to contest low ratings from a buyer.

We’ve heard lots of griping from readers of this blog, who complain that eBay is essentially shunning the small seller in favor of bigger ones, who are more likely to offer fixed-price items. Some small sellers have begun to dip their toes in other online marketplaces, like Etsy.com.

Maybe we shouldn’t blame eBay for trying new things. As the story says, some analysts think the novelty of auction sites has worn off since eBay was launched 10 years ago. Buyers these days would rather pay a fixed price, and eBay is simply adjusting to consumer preference.

Despite the complaining, many small business owners we’ve talked to in the past say alternatives just won’t cut it, and eBay is still the easiest way to sell their wares.

Readers, is that changing? Are you still finding success with eBay, or have you tried out other methods? Do you think auction sites are going out of style?

Photo: AP

How to Use a Consultant in Your Company
Available from: eBooks.com

Price: USD 29.95

Overview
In this chaotic age of new technologies, downsizing, and reengineering, managers and executives are relying more and more on the consultant. Hiring the right consultants for your company and making effective use of them is a vital skill, and yet there has been a lack of guidance on this topic ? until now. How to Use a Consultant in Your Company delivers expert advice and practical guidelines on how to successfully create and manage the client/consultant relationship ? to your advantage. The book is based on the authors’ previous work entitled Managing the Consultant: A Corporate Guide. Incorporating more than fifty percent new material, this book emphasizes the management aspects of the consultant. The updated version includes new material on the following subjects: what are Internet consultants; where does contracting out differ from consulting; where is it the same; can consultants be “temps”; evaluating consultants; billing and payment arrangements; controlling costs and fees; contacts with competitors; antitrust and trade regulations; using the contract to guide retention; and noncompete clause. This is a hot topic as the market has grown significantly due to downsizing and reengineering - and companies today would rather hire specialists on a job-by-job basis as opposed to full-time to avoid paying long-term benefits.John McGonagle and Carolyn Vella provide up-to-the-minute information on: Defining your consulting needs Finding and selecting the right consultants Managing the paper trail?corporate policies, contracting issues Working with an individual consultant or an entire firm Handling disputes, lawsuits, and complaints Evaluating consultants Including forms and other materials for help in developing formal policies, billing procedures, and more that you can adapt to fit your own situation, How to Use a Consultant in Your Company is the one-book-fits-all solution for anyone responsible for getting the most out of their company?s consultant. John J. McGonagle Jr., JD (Blandon, PA), is a management consultant and the author or coauthor of eleven business books. Carolyn M. Vella (Blandon, PA) is the founder of The Helicon Group and its current divisions.

Ten Steps to Innovation Heaven: How to Create Future Growth and Competitive Strength
Available from: Buy.com USA and Buy.com CA

Price: USD 21.63

Overview
Innovation promises a lot, and companies of all sizes may recognize its potential, yet successful implementation remains a challenge. This book highlights the key reasons why companies fail in innovation and how they can avoid it, and then presents a practical, 10-step framework for planning and implementing successful innovation projects. With genuine insights and a deep understanding of the factors that make or break a project, the vital role of business innovation is made accessible to any reader for any company.